I’m from Somaliland. As someone watching our diplomatic choices, I see a pattern of missed opportunities. The old rulebook for recognition no longer applies - and we’re still playing by it.
The Weight of Choosing One Door
Here’s what I think is hardest to grasp: when you commit to one path, you lose the ability to even see other possibilities. Not just temporarily - permanently.
It’s not just that China might be angry someday. It’s that by choosing Taiwan, we surrendered our right to be a bridge between powers. We became a dot on somebody else’s map instead of a node in our own network.
The philosophical core is this: commitment is not strength - it’s vulnerability. When you tie yourself to one outcome, you’ve already decided you can’t adapt when conditions change. This is the lesson for any small actor in a big system: your survival depends not on picking the winning side, but on remaining useful to multiple sides. Usefulness is not loyalty. Influence comes not from being right, but from being necessary.
Somaliland’s Double Misstep
For over thirty years, we’ve chased recognition through conventional means - aligning with whoever seems most willing to recognize us. This approach has cost us dearly.
First error: Taiwan instead of China. When Somaliland established relations with Taiwan, it was presented as a bold move. But strategically, this was choosing the declining power over the ascendant one. China dominates the region economically and politically. Taiwan’s reintegration into China seems increasingly inevitable as China’s dominance grows. When that happens, they won’t forgive our choice.
Second error: Israel over regional consensus. More recently, rushing toward Israel showed the same pattern. The Muslim world - including our neighbors - largely views this alignment as supporting daily violence against Palestinians. We chose a symbolic gesture over substantive regional relationships.
Both choices traded long-term strategic positioning for short-term symbolic wins.
The Cost of Playing Client
The cost shows up in tangible ways:
- Economic isolation - Missing out on Chinese investment and regional trade networks
- Regional alienation - Those who matter see us as unserious partners
- Strategic predictability - Everyone knows where we’ll align before we do, which removes our bargaining power
In a world where power concentrates among those who can operate across multiple axes, being predictable is defeat.
What the New Rules Demand
The emerging world order rewards strategic autonomy over client status. Nations maintaining multiple relationships - commercial, diplomatic, cultural - across different centers of power are finding opportunities that single-alignment players miss.
Somaliland could have been that player. Instead, we’ve become the cautionary tale of how not to navigate what comes next.
What opportunities do you see that we missed? I’m thinking through this as I watch regional dynamics unfold.